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| Clients
continue to ask us what the future holds for the stock and bond
markets. While no one can know exactly where the market will
go in the short term, the past has provided us with the knowledge
that historically markets have turned positive given medium-
to long-term time horizons. Past performance is no guarantee
of future results. No one can predict the future, but we can
use certain economic indicators to judge the overall health
of our economy today. |
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U.S. Economic
News
The U.S. Department of Labor recently announced that the American
economy added 308,000 jobs in March. This improvement marked the
largest increase in jobs in almost four years and more than doubled
the rate expected by economists surveyed by the Dow Jones Newswires
and CNBC.
Other indicators during the quarter seem to indicate a period of
general health.
- The Institute
for Supply Management said its Purchasing Manager’s Index
(PMI) of manufacturing
activity rose to 62.5 in March – the fifth straight month
above 60. Any reading above 50 indicates economic expansion.
- Early in
March, the U.S. Department of Commerce said that factory orders
rose 0.3% in February,
after declining 0.9% in January.
Global Economic
News
The economies of the world’s two most populous nations, China
and India, continue to grow rapidly.
- China’s
National Bureau of Statistics stated that growth in the first
half of 2004 would not be lower than 9% and that an annual growth
rate of 8% was likely, barring any major surprises.
- India’s
economy grew an astonishing 10.4% in the fourth quarter of 2003,
fed by strong results in the farm and manufacturing sectors.
- The European
Central Bank kept its key interest rate at 2%, the lowest level
since World War II for most countries in the euro zone.
This data, coupled
with a well-rounded, and asset allocated portfolio should give investors
reason to be enthusiastic about the remainder of 2004. While unforeseen
events can have short-term impacts on the markets, the overall economy
seems poised to continue in this recovery mode.
Sources: MFS Research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street
Journal online; CNNMoney; Hoover’s online.
The information provided is for informational
purposes only and is not to be construed as a recommendation. Consult
your financial advisor to determine what is appropriate for you.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results
If you have any comments, questions or suggestions concerning this
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A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR
The Retirement Planning and Wealth Preservation Specialists Since
1972
610 Smithfield Street, Suite 400, Pittsburgh, PA 15222
Phone 412.227.3200, Fax 412.227.3210, Toll Free 1.800.900.4492
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